China’s Pulitzer Prize

May 9, 2012, 9:52 pm

≫ Next: China Real Estate Unravels

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I just got back from a two-week family visit back to the U.S., and things have been anything but quiet while I was gone:   naval confrontations in the South China Seas, Chen Guangcheng’s flight to the U.S. embassy, the annual US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Beijing … and now, the expulsion of a [...]

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China Real Estate Unravels

May 15, 2012, 10:55 pm

≫ Next: No Guarantee

≪ Previous: China’s Pulitzer Prize

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As a prelude to a broader analysis of China’s GDP, and the accuracy of its official GDP figures, I want to start by examining the national real estate statistics for the first four months of 2012.  This discussion feeds into the broader GDP picture, but the property story that has been unfolding is important and [...]

No Guarantee

May 19, 2012, 7:20 am

≫ Next: Trade War in the Offing?

≪ Previous: China Real Estate Unravels

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In my debate with Andrew Batson in The Guardian in March, I noted that: There really are two related but distinct things people have in mind when they talk about a “hard landing” for China. The first is a rapid deceleration of GDP growth – below, say, 7%. The second is some kind of financial [...]

Trade War in the Offing?

May 31, 2012, 1:08 am

≫ Next: Follow Me on Twitter

≪ Previous: No Guarantee

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I was on BBC Monday, talking about the latest trade spats developing between the U.S. and China.  Over the past few weeks, the U.S. imposed two distinct sets of retaliatory tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels (and just today, followed up with similar sanctions on Chinese-made wind-turbine towers).  Last Friday, China struck back by asking the [...]

Follow Me on Twitter

June 2, 2012, 2:15 am

≫ Next: Data Points and Article Links 6/10/12

≪ Previous: Trade War in the Offing?

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Anyone who enjoys this blog, and finds it useful, might want to consider following me on Twitter at @prchovanec.  Every day, I come across data, info, and articles that I may not have time to incorporate into a full-blown blog post, but I suspect many readers would find worthwhile.  I try to be selective, focusing [...]

Data Points and Article Links 6/10/12

June 10, 2012, 3:34 am

≫ Next: Can U.S. and China Avert Accounting Armageddon?

≪ Previous: Follow Me on Twitter

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I’ve been on the road (in China and the US) for the past two weeks.  I’ll have some more substantive thoughts to share on this blog soon, but in the meantime, here are some interesting data points and article links I’ve been sharing via Twitter @prchovanec: (Jun 11) China Bsn News: heavy truck makers may [...]

Can U.S. and China Avert Accounting Armageddon?

June 17, 2012, 8:04 am

≫ Next: Data Points and Article Links 6/18/12

≪ Previous: Data Points and Article Links 6/10/12

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China and the U.S. appear to be an a collision course over accounting.  That’s a lot more serious than it sounds.  By the end of this year, unless a compromise can be reached, there is a very real chance that U.S. securities regulators may end up employing the “nuclear option”:  forcibly delisting every Chinese company [...]

Data Points and Article Links 6/18/12

June 18, 2012, 7:14 am

≫ Next: Evergrande Allegations

≪ Previous: Can U.S. and China Avert Accounting Armageddon?

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Here are some of the data points and article links I’ve been tweeting @prchovanec: (18 Jun) Overcapacity: China aluminum supply = 1.6m tons growing at 20%/year, demand = 1.3m tons growing at 4% http://bit.ly/Pbtx3f (18 Jun) FP: Popular novels offer glimpse into “hidden rules” of Chinese politics http://bit.ly/LwIMCo (18 Jun) RT @chinahearsay Telegraph: ‘Sexy Mandarin’ [...]

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Evergrande Allegations

June 21, 2012, 4:59 am

≫ Next: Falling Dominoes

≪ Previous: Data Points and Article Links 6/18/12

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I was quoted today by the BBC on today’s announcement that China will relax some of its restrictions on foreign investment in its domestic stock market.  You can read my comments here, and I’m also going to talk about it live on BBC TV at 6:30am Friday morning Beijing time (6:30pm Thursday NY time). The [...]

Falling Dominoes

June 27, 2012, 8:15 am

≫ Next: Am I a China Bear?

≪ Previous: Evergrande Allegations

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Last month, I called attention to an article in Caixin magazine about the implosion in Beijing of something called a “credit guarantee company,” and examined the potential risks such entities pose to China’s financial stability.  Today, Caixin published another must-read article about a new crisis in which credit guarantees — this time directly between borrowers [...]

Am I a China Bear?

July 17, 2012, 7:43 am

≫ Next: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 1

≪ Previous: Falling Dominoes

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There are two schools of thought on the Chinese economy right now.  The first says “It’s always darkest just before the dawn.”  The second says “It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.”  It’s clear that China’s economy is slowing.  But what happens next is far from clear, and the subject of much debate. [...]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 1

July 23, 2012, 7:38 am

≫ Next: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 2

≪ Previous: Am I a China Bear?

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The buzz is that China real estate is back.  After nearly a year of steep discounting, with both land and housing sales in April looking like they were falling of a cliff, the market was electrified in late May by stories of would-be home-buyers lining up around the block and entire luxury developments selling out [...]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 2

July 24, 2012, 7:23 am

≫ Next: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 3

≪ Previous: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 1

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Yesterday, I began an investigation into the potential causes behind the latest bump in China’s property sales numbers, and whether they portend a genuine turn-around in the nation’s real estate market.  I noted that five basic theories to account for what has been happening, and promised to examine them each in turn: Lower Prices are [...]

What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 3

July 30, 2012, 11:59 pm

≫ Next: CFR Interview

≪ Previous: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 2

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In the preceding posts, I examined the first two out of five basic theories that might explain the latest bump in China’s property sales numbers, and whether they portend a genuine turn-around in the nation’s real estate market: Lower Prices are Bringing Buyers Back Looser Restrictions are Unleashing Pent-Up Demand Optimistic Buyers are Misreading the [...]

CFR Interview

August 4, 2012, 8:39 am

≫ Next: What US Candidates Need to Know About China

≪ Previous: What’s Driving China’s Real Estate Rally? Part 3

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Earlier this week, I was interviewed by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) for their website, about the current state of the Chinese economy.  You can read what I had to say below, or check out the original post by clicking here. Silver Linings in China’s Slowdown China’s gross domestic product for the second quarter [...]

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What US Candidates Need to Know About China

August 19, 2012, 8:39 am

≫ Next: Speaking Events in Shanghai and Beijing

≪ Previous: CFR Interview

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This weekend, I was quoted in The Weekly Standard about what Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan need to know about what is happening in China.  It begins by noting that Paul Ryan, Romney’s surprise VP pick, came out swinging the other day on President Obama’s handling of China: “Free trade is a powerful tool for [...]

Speaking Events in Shanghai and Beijing

August 25, 2012, 6:36 am

≫ Next: WSJ: China’s Solyndra Economy

≪ Previous: What US Candidates Need to Know About China

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I’m going to be speaking at several events over the next week, to which readers are welcome to register and attend. On Thursday, August 30, I will giving two talks in Shanghai.  Starting at 4:00pm, I’ll be participating in a panel discussion sponsored by the European Union Chamber of Commerce on “China’s Consumption Challenge: Rebalancing [...]

WSJ: China’s Solyndra Economy

September 12, 2012, 11:26 pm

≫ Next: Interviews on CNN and NPR

≪ Previous: Speaking Events in Shanghai and Beijing

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I had a new op-ed in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, which you can read below or view the original here.  At the very last moment, one paragraph was cut from the final version, presumably due to space limitations.  I have restored it here in italics, because the crisis facing Suntech (the world’s largest solar panel [...]

Interviews on CNN and NPR

September 16, 2012, 8:09 am

≫ Next: NPR: What’s Going Wrong With China’s Solar Industry?

≪ Previous: WSJ: China’s Solyndra Economy

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Here are links to two interviews I did recently with major U.S. media outlets: The first is a 5-minute interview on CNN last Monday about the mounting bad debt problem in China’s banking system and its implications for the country’s slowing economy.  You can watch it by clicking here. The second is 5-minute radio discussion [...]

NPR: What’s Going Wrong With China’s Solar Industry?

October 10, 2012, 7:51 am

≫ Next: Boao Review: The Realities of Renminbi Internationalization

≪ Previous: Interviews on CNN and NPR

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Yesterday, I was on National Public Radio (NPR) talking about the meltdown in China’s heavily subsidized solar industry, as a follow up to my Wall Street Journal op-ed on that topic last month.  You can read the transcript below, or listen to the interview here. Steve Inskeep talks to Beijing-based economist Patrick Chovanec about too [...]